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Seeing Around Corners: How to Spot Inflection Points in Business Before They Happen

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The first prescriptive, innovative guide to seeing inflection points before they happen—and how to harness these disruptive influences to give your company a strategic advantage.

Paradigmatic shifts in the business landscape, known as inflection points,  can either create new, entrepreneurial opportunities (see Amazon and Netflix) or they can lead to devastating consequences (e.g., Blockbuster and Toys R Us). Only those leaders who can “see around corners”–that is, spot the disruptive inflection points developing before they hit–are poised to succeed in this market.

Columbia Business School Professor and corporate consultant Rita McGrath contends that inflection points, though they may seem sudden, are not random. Every seemingly overnight shift is the final stage of a process that has been subtly building for some time. Armed with the right strategies and tools, smart businesses can see these inflection points coming and use them to gain a competitive advantage.  Seeing Around Corners  is the first hands-on guide to anticipating, understanding, and capitalizing on the inflection points shaping the marketplace. 

272 pages, Hardcover

Published September 3, 2019

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Rita McGrath

6 books17 followers

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5 stars
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142 (29%)
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 55 reviews
Profile Image for Henk.
928 reviews
March 15, 2023
Up to date and thought provoking, with actionable insights to foster innovation and preparing for disruption
If you can see your future you probably are not challenging yourself enough

Very readable, with actions and concrete examples of the recent past.

More thoughts to follow.
Profile Image for Devika.
134 reviews
October 8, 2019
It's interesting that McGrath pretty much sums up her own book - “The techniques described here are not about making predictions and being right. They are about generating possibilities and opening your mind to what might happen, so that as evidence gets stronger, you are ready to take action. For any future state, there are many variables that can lead to one outcome or another. What is valuable in complex systems is to be able to keep multiple possible futures in mind so that if and when they unfold, the landscape is more recognisable.”

What is an inflection point? Basically anything that challenges the core assumptions on which a business is based. The focus of this book is the importance and mechanism of building a discovery driven mindset, one that recognises the importance of innovation over repeatable execution. The author then dives into leading and lagging indicators, underscoring the former and downplaying the latter in terms of understanding and recognising the relevance of an inflection point.

Why do inflection points exist?
1. Human needs remain stable over a long period of time, although the technology that solves these needs might change. Think Netflix & Uber.
2. The rare epochs where there's a paradigm shift in our needs, which was inevitable given incremental changes over a long period of time.

Biggest takeaway? McGrath says it best - “Your ability to look into the future is only as well developed as the set of possibilities you are prepared to entertain.”

Simply written and draws amazing insights from the companies/case studies we already know, so would highly recommend reading it. But 4/5 rating because the last bit on identifying personal inflection points through design thinking felt fairly repetitive to someone like me who has already read quite a bit on the topic. In case you haven't, you'll love this book.
Profile Image for Mukesh Gupta.
Author 62 books16 followers
August 20, 2019
Overview:

-- I got this book as an advance review copy from Netgalley. Rita McGrath has produced another stunning book, in a way even better than her earlier book “The End of Competitive advantage”.

Ease of reading:

-- The book is not only easy to read. The stories and the insights from the stories follow one after the other. The stories keep the reader interested and the insights from the stories allows us to learn from these stories.

What I loved about the book:

-- We are living in a world where there are inflection points coming at us from all around us. Industry after industry seems to be on the path of disruption. Given this scenario, the ability to see these inflection points early and knowing what to do (and when to do) is a meta skill that all leaders will need to develop, if they want to continue to be effective as leaders and to successfully navigate their organisations through these inflection points.
-- She presents a simple framework through which we can look at these inflection points and decide what would be the appropriate response.
-- The book seamlessly moves from being descriptive to becoming prescriptive.
-- Every chapter ends with a key takeaways, so that if you don’t have the time or patience to read the entire chapter, you could quickly read the summary to get the gist of the chapter. While the summary is great, this gives some people incentive to just read the summary and not dive deeper, which leads to them not understanding the nuances.

What would I have done differently:

-- I don’t think there is anything I would have done differently. She shares examples of how people and organisations already have used the principles that she presents in the book to navigate crucial inflection points.
-- Maybe, it would have been very interesting for readers to see what in her opinion are some of the inflection points that are playing out in the market (that could have a significant impact on the market) and how would she expect the players in the market to respond. I think this could make an excellent additional material that she can provide for people who would like to know more and may not necessarily go into the book.

My recommendation:

-- IF you are leading an organisation, business or even if you see yourself as the leader leading your life, this book comes highly recommended. I would give this book a 5/5.
Profile Image for Jari Pirhonen.
409 reviews13 followers
April 19, 2020
Didn't get much out of it. Basically - try to see the weak signals and predict disruptions in you business. Mostly about changes because of digitalization and examples of companies who succeeded or failed to change.
Profile Image for Daniel.
655 reviews87 followers
November 3, 2019
This is not a technical book about how to see inflection points. Most of the time new trends that are about to become big will already be talked about a lot. The problem is in whether you and your Organization are blindsided by the entrenched way of doing things (too late), or trying to start things before things are ready (too early). So how to get the timing right?

1. Get out of the house and office. Talk to front line staff and customers. Not the kind of automated surveys that they send you after a service encounter, because the frontline staff only invite customers whom they know to be satisfied.
2. Encourage communication in the Organization. Have town hall meetings where everyone can contribute. Managers have to look good to their superiors and are likely to hide problems for far too long.
3. To come up with new solutions, the CEO and the board must be involved, support given when failures happen, and incentives are provided. No one wants to risk their career for a potentially suicide Mission.
4. CEOs must set the tone of the organisation.
5. Do micro trials before investing huge amount of resources.
6. Sometimes the only way to change is to bring in new blood.

Personal development
1. Read widely, learn across disciplines.
2. Meet with people from diverse backgrounds and so that you can link problems with solutions. That is entrepreneurship.
3. Studies found that CEOs are not the best in any field but are >75% in many fields. So Steve Jobs could do calligraphy and computers.
4. Aim for goals that can be achieved in many different ways. Don’t aim for goals that can disappear if there is a merger.
I totally enjoyed this book!
Profile Image for Eduardo Menezes.
8 reviews2 followers
December 30, 2019
A professora Rita McGrath não é considerada uma das maiores influenciadoras em pensamento estratégico à toa. Nessa obra, ela busca atender a uma demanda relativamente antiga de gestores "quando concentrar esforços em desenvolver iniciativas que tirem proveito de potenciais pontos de inflexão?" Para isso, ela trouxe uma abordagem ora prescritiva ora descritiva, combinando teoria com diversos cases de empresas e gestores, o que torna a leitura fluida.

Para tirar proveito do livro, recomendo que o leitor pesquise brevemente pelos seguintes conceitos: arena competitiva (da própria autora), Job-to-Be-Done e ponto de inflexão. Embora os conceitos sejam direta ou indiretamente expostos no decorrer da obra, ter uma definição clara para cada um deles ajuda a maximizar o entendimento de cada página.

Fazendo uma análise mais técnica, cabe ressaltar os méritos do livro:
- Mostrar a importância de envolver todos os agentes no processo de inovação, em especial os que lidam com a operação;
- Entender que organizações disputam por um conjunto de recursos escassos e que um ponto de inflexão muda as circunstâncias da disputa;
- Apresentar ferramentas tão simples quanto poderosas para elucidar as condições que podem moldar um ponto de inflexão;
- Fornecer insights para que indivíduos preparem suas carreiras para pontos de inflexão capazes de representar uma ameaça ou oportunidade para si.

Há poucos aspectos negativos, mas eles devem ser apresentados:
- Alguns capítulos se perdem em constatações óbvias, como a de que é preciso ir a campo para entender a magnitude do problema e testar soluções preliminares e a de que é preciso combater silos para que a inovação prospere. Porém, a autora deve ter feito isso considerando que leitores mais conservadores podem representar expressiva parcela do todo;
- Alguns poucos conceitos, como o de Imagination Premium Ratio, não só foram mal apresentados como comprometeram a qualidade do capítulo. Em um livro de apenas 210 páginas de texto corrido, há espaço para detalhamento em uma edição futura.

Dado que a crença de que vantagens competitivas são duradouras é uma miragem, empresas precisam desenvolver e reforçar capacitações não só para prosperar em novas arenas competitivas quanto para consolidar sua posição naquelas em que já está inserida. Por isso, a leitura desse livro é obrigatória para (futuros) gestores de todos os ramos!
April 13, 2024
This was a really good book that taught me lessons on how to be a better person and leader.
Profile Image for Boni Aditya.
327 reviews887 followers
December 23, 2023
The first part of the book talks about the need to identify the inflection points ahead of time. But all the best practices suggested are taken from various books, unfortunately, I have read almost all of those books, Only the paranoid survive, the hard thing about hard things, Steve Blanks - Customer Development - The Four Steps to the Epiphany and Eric Ries Lean Startups - The Jobs to be done framework. The author has almost zero original ideas, almost all the ideas were cherry picked from other books or the works of other authors, this is what makes me really angry about this book. This book has very little original thought in it. i was expecting to find some original strategies but they are merely derivations of previous works.

The ARENA map piggy backs on the existing jobs to be done but create a small framework.

1. Resource pool
2. Contestants
3. Stakeholders and their most important jobs to be done
4. The consumption chains that deliver these jobs
5. The attributes stakeholders experience
6. Organizational capabilities and assets

If there is one thing the author got right it is the case studies, she found apt case studies to illustrate each of the points that wanted to make. BBC, Netflix, Gillette and other case studies were incredible and bang on.

The book got incredibly boring when the author started talking about culture - galvanizing the organization in particular - about how satya nadella changed the culture of Microsoft.

The book becomes a bit interesting while discussing THE INNOVATION PROFICIENCY SCALE

Level 1: Extreme Bias Toward Exploitation
Level 2: Innovation Theater
Level 3: Localized Innovation
Level 4: Opportunistic Innovation
Level 5: Emergent Proficiency
Level 6: Maturing Proficiency
Level 7: Strategic Innovation
Level 8: Innovation Mastery

But becomes boring again after women in leadership enters -

Towards the end the book is pretty much filled with spacefillers.

The author runs out of things to talk pretty much in the first 1/3 of the book, interesting things to talk about, and then fill the other 2/3 with mushy stuff like culture, vision goals etc... the hard core stuff with case studies is the crux of the book, the rest is just small talk.





Eight practices can help you make sure you are seeing what is going on along the edges.
1. Ensure direct connection between the people at the edges of your
company and the people making strategy.
2. Go out of your way to include diverse perspectives in thinking about
the implications of the future.
3. Use deliberate decision-making processes for consequential and
irreversible (type 1) decisions. Use small, agile, empowered teams
for reversible (type 2) experimental decisions.
4. Foster little bets that are rich in learning, ideally distributed across the organization.
5. Pursue direct contact with the environment—“get out of the building.”
6. Make sure your people are incentivized to hear about reality, not the reverse.
7. Realize when your people are in denial.
8. Expose yourself and your organization to where the future is unfolding today.






Here is a list of books that the author has recommended

Only the Paranoid Survive by Andy Grove. (Read)
Little Bets by Peter Sims
Disrupting Class by Clayton Christenson
The End of Competitive Advantage by Rita
Design Thinking Handbook
Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder by Nicholas Taleb
Hit Refresh by Satya Nadella
Dual Transformation by Scott Anthony, Clark Gilbert, and Mark Johnson
Tracy Kidder’s book The Soul of a New Machine
Patrick Lencioni’s book The Advantage
Team of Teams by Stanley McChrystal
The Hard Thing About Hard Things by Ben Horowitz
Extremis Leadership by Thomas Kolditz
Profile Image for Firsh.
304 reviews2 followers
February 13, 2023
Well it was interesting, but not life changing. However, I gained a new name of a female narrator, Tiffany Morgan, who was absolutely amazing and I can't wait to listen other books narrated by her. The content doesn't even matter, as long as she is talking.

My problem with the content (hence my neutral 3 stars) is that this is borderline futurism or forecasting. I don't aspire to be good at this, I value the backward looking or lagging indicators better and just like to extrapolate. I know that is not perfect, but it seems to be the industry standard. You have to be truly gifted to spot an out of the ordinary change (or an inflection point), and I don't try to delude myself that I'd be able to. I leave that task to extraordinary CEOs, and I just buy their companies. I don't think my investing newsletter provider does anything else either, but it's nice to know and hear examples of people who have done this. But it does not make me any better at forecasting, no matter how fascinating it is to spot a tipping point.

The book began strong (maybe because of the refreshing voice), but over time as I listened I became bored with it. Unless it's your company, and you are the CEO you can't do much but hope that decisionmakers read the book. Other than that all you can do is buy good companies and then do nothing. I didn't get much value out of the book, but perhaps I'm not the target audience.

When it comes to my business, I just keep delivering value and listen to customers, it's as simple as that. Never needed to forecast, if you ride the right waves, you are moving along with the rest of what's happening by reacting quickly. I think the examples of the groundbreaking by Netflix and Uber just illustrate that other companies were stuck with their good old ways and refused to be open minded. The inflection point was already past them where they still could have taken action, there was plenty of time for that. Competitors didn't need to to spot it before it happened! They just needed to believe and react faster...
6 reviews
August 21, 2022
With “The end of competitive advantage” McGrath wrote one of the standard works for me on strategy and innovation for the 2000’s. It is still on my desk and I come back to it regularly.

Maybe my expectations were set too high for “Seeing around corners”. I was hoping on yet another strategy and innovation standard work with decades worth of value. It is not.

My main concern is with the subtitle: “how to spot infliction points in business before they happen”. This was quite a promise, but frankly McGrath does not really deliver on it. Or at least not for me. Sure, the author has some good points about the importance of identifying weak signals and acting on them. But it is all very thin. No tactical concepts, no toolbox.

Also literally, this part of the book is maybe less then 25% and can be brought back to a three page article in a business magazine. The rest is filled with more or less interesting anecdotes and suggestions for old fashioned (American?) corporates to get more innovative with a far fetched “Innovation Proficiency Scale”.

For me, the book is not so much about seeing around corners, but about how incumbent corporates that have lived under a stone since the ‘90s can protect themselves against disruptors. Do these companies even still exist?
Profile Image for Richard Thompson.
2,228 reviews113 followers
March 9, 2023
I have spent much of my career working on projects on the bleeding edge, and while I have had a lot of fun doing that and have made a very nice living at it, I have never had wild success and more than once it has pained me to see someone else spin gold out of an idea that I or one of my clients had first. So I'm always imagining that I could do much better if I only learned some secret that I didn't have and for which I didn't have to promise my first born or my soul. Who is my Rumplestiltskin? Sadly it's not Rita McGrath who just serves us up several hundred pages of business school drivel. It's not that her insights are wrong. They are just not very interesting. I didn't come away from this book with a single aha! moment or an inspiration to dig back into that billion dollar blockchain payments idea that I have been nursing for a couple of years. Oh well. Maybe I have to just dive into it and work at it, but heck I'd rather read an inspiring book and dream about it some more.
Profile Image for Ashley.
72 reviews8 followers
February 23, 2021
Rita does a nice job in combining two powerful frameworks - the Harvard Business Case Study model and Christensen's Job Theory.

There's some good application here in drilling into problems and understanding how elements of a current market that are irritating to users, can become the catalyst for a major change and inflection point (irritation with paying late fees w/ Blockbuster was the line in for the original mail-in Netflix model).

Unique to this book is the strong warning that the goal isn't to "see" as far into the future as possible and act on it, but to use that information to plan for the appropriate time to act. Being the first to act on an inflection point too-far in the future can be set up for significant cost and failure (some examples with Microsoft's portable music player strategy).

Anyway, fun read. Recommended - particularly if you prefer learning via case studies as opposed to stepping through frameworks with point-solution examples.
Profile Image for Alireza Hejazi.
Author 9 books12 followers
December 6, 2021
This book is a step-by-step approach to anticipating, comprehending, and profiting on market inflection points. It represents a new line to strategy creation and administration. Recognizing and acting on inflection points is the primary reason why executives must see beyond their company, industry, and consumers. It describes the inflection point as a change in the business environment that radically affects some aspect of our activity, calling into doubt certain long-held beliefs. How we respond to such shifts may either provide new possibilities or have disastrous consequences. Only leaders who can see around corners and anticipate impending inflection points will be able to thrive in this new and disrupted market. To optimize opportunities, the book provides methods within a discovery-driven growth playbook. It provides business experts with a new perspective on how to access and use resources in the future.
66 reviews
December 27, 2020
Purchased this book based on the summary as it sounded intriguing. While the contents are not earth shattering in many respects such as the idea of getting out of the office and talking with stakeholders. That said I still found the book to be a worthwhile read.

I really liked the chapters “Snow melts from the edges”, Customers not hostages”, and How leadership can and must learn to see around corners.

In the chapter “Customers not hostages” the author discusses Netflix and innovative processes as it involves change. Certainly much has been written about Netflix, but the author does a great job of using this as a case study in supporting customers needs see around corners and not only continue to meet their needs, but stay ahead of the competition.

There are some gems within the pages and good lessons.
Profile Image for Phillip Berry.
Author 4 books7 followers
August 18, 2021
Good book. Very academic in tone but thought provoking. McGrath frames her approach around Andy Grove's concept of "inflection points" and makes a good case for using a more systematic model for anticipating big changes. She uses some great case studies to support her argument around the need for a systematic approach and how best to execute on it. She gets distracted in a few places throughout the book as she stretches to some different kinds of examples but she returns frequently to inflection points and it helps center her story.

I particularly enjoyed some of her excursions into leadership stories and style as well as her ability to prompt some deeper thinking along the concepts she presents. There are no silver bullets in this book but many golden nuggets and I anticipate returning to it as our business continues to evolve through its own inflection points.
November 22, 2020
Always been a fan of Rita's work (Discovery Driven Growth, End of Competitive Advantage etc.) and this is no exception. In seeing around corners, Rita teaches us how to businesses can spot inflection points much before it happens and how we can act on them when the signal is still weak and capitalize on market opportunities before it becomes obvious. Plenty of great insights from business leaders and some great case studies along the way that I found to be invaluable. The last chapter provides insights into how we can evolve our careers to be prepared for such changes and taking a design thinking approach towards career progress and development. Great read!
Profile Image for Scott Wozniak.
Author 4 books87 followers
January 8, 2020
This is a solid summary of the ways to approach innovation and disruption. The standard tools that work in a stable environment won't work in a situation where you don't know the path, where you can't build a step by step plan.

Don't spend a lot of money upfront and don't measure the same things as your usual projects. Instead, look for insight from the "edges" of your community. Run a lot of small experiments. Celebrate learning, not efficiency or profit. And lead in a high trust, low command & control way.
Profile Image for Book Reader.
333 reviews
January 19, 2020
Paradigmatic shifts in business, also knows as inflection points, can make or break organizations. This book helps business leaders know how to spot those and take action to prepare for opportunities or disruption.

This book is written well. This is the first book of Rita Mcgrath I’ve ever read and I found it interesting and insightful. I can’t wait to read her other book The End of Competitive Advantage.

The points in this book are well presented. There are also figures that help illustrate the points. It is a bit academic and practical at the same time.

Profile Image for Raymond Goss.
434 reviews3 followers
November 4, 2021
Catchy title about how to think outside and in the box. The book covers how to not get locked in and blinded by practices that prevent you from thinking big or different about opportunities. I think I got more out of the bad practices and management styles to avoid than about what to do instead. There isn't so much about determining where the company is headed than it is about how the team and people are ready for the unexpected. Profits and revenue are trailing indicators. Happy customers and employees lead to profits.
Profile Image for Darya.
611 reviews14 followers
June 29, 2019
Adding this book to my virtual shelf of the great strategy books. It is easy to read and full of stories about companies and people. Theory is well mixed with great examples. I found the book very easy to read and it makes you think as a leader in your company and as an individual if you are looking for a challenge in your career. Thank you for the advanced reader copy!
Profile Image for Nick Frazier.
56 reviews2 followers
December 18, 2019
Good read discussing why organizations (businesses in this case) fail to adopt innovation efforts.
Anybody serving in the military can feel the pain when the author discusses "innovation theater" or the attempt to start innovating but failing to back it with processes, education, culture, or leadership.
Profile Image for Don.
1,316 reviews11 followers
September 2, 2023
This book started off pretty slow, and I didn’t like the backward looking notion of analyzing past inflection points, but you have to learn the basics before you can learn the really good stuff and that is what happened in this book. The insights and analysis and how you can actually apply them in your business and your life were invaluable.
Profile Image for Michael Payne.
63 reviews75 followers
November 3, 2019
Snow melts at the edges. - Andy Grove

Change happens slowly at first and at the perimeter; then all at once.

The monolithic dominance of Silicon Valley in tech is melting at the edges.

Think Anywhere, it works.
Profile Image for Jim.
916 reviews
January 28, 2020
An interesting discussion!

The idea of inflection points is truly individual as the author points out. The text is an interesting look at this and the processes one can undertake to improve themselves and their organizations ability to make strategic adjustments.
21 reviews2 followers
February 5, 2020
The concept or inflection points seems very similar to Gladwell's tipping point, yet this author builds a bit more classification of organisation readiness for it.

Personally, I am more interested in how inflection points are created and therefore found this book of less value than Tipping Point.
Profile Image for Hannamari.
350 reviews14 followers
March 1, 2020
Though I found this book to have little original ideas, I think this is a good and well-structured package of modern practices on business strategy and leadership summarising and combining ideas from the likes of Ries, McChrystal and Christensen.
Profile Image for Somogyi Béla.
30 reviews
March 14, 2020
Couple of takeaways from this book:
Listen to other people who have other interests. Analyze their point of view.
New information-new attitude, new behaviour
Isolation is dangerous
We have to concentrate on our co-workers not only ourselves.
Always analyze in small tasks, being opened is vital
Profile Image for Mukom Akong.
5 reviews
March 30, 2020
I loved the genera thesis of the book and the examples she presented.

I however would have loved to see the tools developed to be more tactical that would help people implement the ideas of the book.
Profile Image for Ricardo Vargas.
Author 31 books68 followers
January 17, 2022
The book is full of examples we can learn from. From companies that were disrupted because they were unable to see changes coming to companies that simply reinvented their industry.

Very well written and engaging. I listened to it using Audible.
88 reviews
September 25, 2022
Quite disappointing. Basically a repackaging of her Discovery Driven Planning approach from 30 years ago and a few random other ideas. Most of the anecdotes seemed shoehorned in to fit the points versus being actual illustrations.
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